Predicted Labor government – Who wins the seat of Brisbane?

trevor evans madonna Jarrett stephen bates

With 36.1% of the votes counted in the seat of Brisbane, Madonna Jarrett for Labor and Stephen Bates for the Greens are neck and neck with 27.8% each of the vote. The LNP’s Trevor Evans on 37.4% seems unlikely to hold the seat.

Meanwhile, the Greens seem likely to win the neighbouring seat of Griffith with Max Chandler-Mather taking 35.8% with 32.9% of the vote counted. Incumbent, Labor’s Terri Butler is lagging with only 29% of the vote.

Nationally, voters have swung against the LNP and Labor and swung to the Greens and independents. Most commentators dismiss the LNP’s chance of holding government and predict a Labour win. While many predict a minority Labor government, it is still possible the party will achieve the necessary 76 seats for a majority.

With teal independents achieving massive swings, senior Liberal figures are already bemoaning the party’s move to the right on social issues.


The ABC’s Anthony Green said earlier tonight, “Trevor Evans is in a lot of trouble.”

The federal seat of Brisbane extending from the city centre into the western suburbs is home to one of the most concentrated LGBTIQ+ populations in the country. Trevor Evans won the seat for the LNP in 2016 becoming Queensland’s first openly gay federal MP.

His main contenders in 2022 are Madonna Jarrett for Labour and Stephen Bates for the Greens. Although traditionally a Labor seat, Teresa Gambaro took Brisbane for the Liberals in 2013. However, the last two elections saw an increasing Greens vote. In 2019, Greens candidate Andrew Bartlett achieved a vote of just 2.12% less than Labor’s Paul Newbury. Labor and the Greens went into the 2022 election with Stephen Bates for the Greens just 1% behind Labor’s Madonna Jarrett in the polls.

Born in northern NSW, Trevor Evans attended the University of Queensland. He later worked as an economist and chief of staff to Liberal politician Peter Dutton before standing for election.

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