Gay candidate predicted to top seat of Brisbane

Antony Green gay candidate

Australia’s most respected election analyst, the ABC’s Antony Green predicts gay candidate Stephen Bates will win the seat of Brisbane for the Greens.

Currently, with 73.9% of the votes counted, the LNP’s Trevor Evans has 38.5% of primary votes. Labor’s Madonna Jarrett follows on 27.5% and then Stephen Bates on 26.8%.

However, Antony Green predicts the third-placed candidate will win on preferences. Information from scrutineers reveals a current preference distribution of 35.1% to Greens, 15.6% to Labor and 49.3% to the LNP.

The predicted result will see a third-placed candidate come from behind for the first time in a decade.

Gay candidate enjoys 4,000+ lead

Antony Green estimates Stephen Bates now leads on preferences by 4,021 votes.

“The LNP vote is down substantially, so Trevor Evans, the LNP member, is defeated — there’s no doubt about that.

“The Labor Party and the Greens are a really close contest to finish second and third, and there’s four candidates below them.

“The information we have on the exclusion of those candidates, as those preferences favour the LNP, which doesn’t affect the result – they then favour the Greens over Labor.

“That flow of preferences means that the Labor Party first preferences must be substantially ahead of the Greens on that first preference count to stay ahead during the distribution of preferences.”

The predicted Stephen Bates win will see him replace another gay politician. The LNP’s Trevor Evans became Queensland’s first openly gay federal MP when he took the seat in 2016.

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