Gay candidate predicted to top seat of Brisbane


Antony Green gay candidate

Australia’s most respected election analyst, the ABC’s Antony Green predicts gay candidate Stephen Bates will win the seat of Brisbane for the Greens.

Currently, with 73.9% of the votes counted, the LNP’s Trevor Evans has 38.5% of primary votes. Labor’s Madonna Jarrett follows on 27.5% and then Stephen Bates on 26.8%.

However, Antony Green predicts the third-placed candidate will win on preferences. Information from scrutineers reveals a current preference distribution of 35.1% to Greens, 15.6% to Labor and 49.3% to the LNP.

The predicted result will see a third-placed candidate come from behind for the first time in a decade.

Gay candidate enjoys 4,000+ lead

Antony Green estimates Stephen Bates now leads on preferences by 4,021 votes.

“The LNP vote is down substantially, so Trevor Evans, the LNP member, is defeated — there’s no doubt about that.

“The Labor Party and the Greens are a really close contest to finish second and third, and there’s four candidates below them.

“The information we have on the exclusion of those candidates, as those preferences favour the LNP, which doesn’t affect the result – they then favour the Greens over Labor.

“That flow of preferences means that the Labor Party first preferences must be substantially ahead of the Greens on that first preference count to stay ahead during the distribution of preferences.”

The predicted Stephen Bates win will see him replace another gay politician. The LNP’s Trevor Evans became Queensland’s first openly gay federal MP when he took the seat in 2016.

For the latest lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex and queer (LGBTIQ) news in Australia, visit qnews.com.au. Check out our latest magazines or find us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube.

Destiny Rogers

Destiny Rogers embarked on her career in the media industry immediately after high school, initially joining Mirror News, which later evolved into News Ltd. She fondly recalls editing Ian Byford's 'Passing Glances: A History of Gay Cairns' as one of her most fulfilling projects. Additionally, Destiny co-researched and co-wrote 'The Queen's Ball', chronicling the history of the world's longest-running continuous queer event. Her investigative work on the history of Australia's COON Cheese and Edward Coon culminated in the publication 'COON: More Holes than Swiss Cheese', a collaborative effort with Dr. Stephen Hagan. Destiny's journey at QNews began as a feature writer, and she was subsequently elevated to the role of Managing Editor of QNews Magazine in 2018. However, in July 2022, she decided to resign from this role to refocus on research and feature writing. For contact, please reach out at destinyr@qnews.com.au.

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